Cryptocurrency price movements may be volatile, but they’re not always unpredictable. 

Throughout crypto history, coins like Bitcoin (BTC) have shown sustained trends that span months or even years. When the market consistently posts gains and attracts new investor capital, traders often suspect a “bull market” is emerging. While identifying the start of a bull market is challenging, there are clear indicators that traders monitor to anticipate the next crypto bull run.

Crypto bull runs offer excitement and opportunity but can also pose challenges in an overly optimistic market. In this guide, we'll explain what defines a crypto bull market and how to trade digital assets with discipline.

What is a crypto bull run?

A crypto bull run refers to a sustained period of rising prices across the cryptocurrency market. During these optimistic phases, enthusiasm runs high, and a growing number of investors fuel a buying frenzy across various digital assets. While some virtual currencies outperform others, most coins and tokens experience gains during a crypto bull run. This surge in activity often coincides with increased media coverage on mainstream platforms and social media, especially as prices reach new highs.

A bull run is the exact opposite of a “bear market” or “crypto winter,” which refer to prolonged periods of falling and stagnant prices. During these downturns, interest in cryptocurrencies fades, and trading volume slows significantly on crypto exchanges. Even well-established projects like Bitcoin tend to trade far below their peak levels in a bear market. Only after signs of a clear trend reversal emerge does the crypto market show signs of bullish momentum. 

Historical overview of crypto bull runs: Examining past occurrences 

Despite the crypto market’s relative youth, it has already experienced several significant bull runs. Some traders attribute these patterns to the “four-year cycle theory,” which suggests the crypto market tends to enter bullish phases following Bitcoin halving events. During these halvings, Bitcoin’s inflation rate is cut in half, a process that occurs approximately every four years. According to this theory, the crypto market generally rises for about two years after a halving, peaks unsustainably, and then falls into a crypto winter until the next halving.

While the four-year cycle theory is far from a guaranteed predictor, it provides a framework for understanding possible catalysts behind previous bull runs in 2013, 2017–2018, and 2020–2021. Each of these surges followed Bitcoin halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, but other significant factors also played a role in shaping these market trends. 

2013 bull run: Banking crisis and early accessibility

A major event that brought attention to Bitcoin in 2013 was the Cyprus banking crisis, in which the Mediterranean island had to impose a levy on bank deposits to avoid insolvency. This move increased distrust towards centralized banks and increased interest in storing wealth in decentralized solutions like BTC. Plus, the launch of more convenient centralized exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken made Bitcoin more accessible to early adopters. This mix of features propelled Bitcoin from under $100 in early 2013 to over $1,100 by the end of the year. 

2017–2018 bull run: Ethereum’s rise and ICO hype

​​Ethereum’s (ETH) 2015 launch introduced the concept of automated “smart contracts,” sparking excitement over decentralized applications (dApps) built on blockchain technology. This innovation spurred a wave of new crypto projects and tokens marketed through initial coin offerings (ICOs). Although many ICOs were scams, they generated immense hype and brought retail and institutional investors into the crypto space. During the 2017–2018 bull run, Ethereum’s price skyrocketed from under $10 in early 2017 to an all-time high of approximately $1,400 in January 2018, demonstrating the growing demand for its technology. Further legitimizing the market, Japan officially recognized crypto exchanges, adding to the bullish momentum during this period.

2020–2021 bull run: Pandemic policies and institutional adoption

The 2020–2021 bull run followed the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns over rising inflation and stimulus policies pushed capital toward digital assets. Institutional interest surged as companies like MicroStrategy, Block (formerly Square), and Tesla added Bitcoin to their treasuries. El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 also underscored its potential as a payment network. These developments helped drive significant gains during this bull market: Bitcoin surged to nearly $69,000, Ethereum reached an all-time high of $4,379, and the global cryptocurrency market cap surpassed $3 trillion for the first time – all in November 2021.

How long does a crypto bull run last? 

The duration of a crypto bull market is unpredictable, but historical trends suggest it typically lasts from a few months to about a year. For example, Bitcoin surged past its previous resistance of $1,200 in March 2017, climbing to nearly $20,000 by January 2018. Similarly, the 2020–2021 bull run stretched from late 2020 until Bitcoin’s peak in November 2021, making it slightly longer than its predecessor.

While these examples offer some context, past performance in the crypto market doesn’t guarantee future outcomes. A bull market’s end is often only clear in hindsight once it transitions into a bear phase.

When is the next crypto bull run? Crypto bull run predictions 

The four-year cycle theory suggests that crypto bull runs occur approximately every four years, typically following Bitcoin’s halving events. According to this model, the crypto market entered a new bull phase after the BTC halving on April 19, 2024. (At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price has risen from $63,510.75 to $104,731.96 – approximately a 64.9% increase – since the April 2024 halving.) 

However, other macroeconomic factors – such as potential Bitcoin ETF approvals, the U.S. presidential election, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts – also contributed to shaping the crypto market’s performance. It’s unclear how much influence the halving alone had on cryptocurrency prices, as these additional developments likely played a significant role in the market’s momentum.

Proponents of the four-year cycle theory anticipate the next bull run to follow Bitcoin’s next halving in mid-2028. Still, it’s important to remember that this model is speculative. External factors – whether bullish or bearish – remain unpredictable, making it impossible to pinpoint the timing or triggers of future market trends.

Strategizing for a crypto bull run: Tips for navigating parabolic moves 

Maximizing the benefits of a crypto bull run requires preparation and a clear strategy. Defining goals and maintaining discipline helps traders stay focused and avoid emotional decisions.

Define realistic price targets

Bull market mania can tempt traders to believe prices will rise indefinitely. Avoid this pitfall by carefully researching a cryptocurrency’s fundamentals, onchain metrics, and tokenomics to assess realistic price outcomes. Setting achievable targets helps identify when to secure gains and avoid holding overvalued assets.

Resist the urge to FOMO buy

The fear of missing out (FOMO) peaks during bull phases, leading to hasty decisions that can be costly. Recognize that prices are often elevated during these periods. While there may still be opportunities to profit, sticking to a predefined investment plan minimizes the risk of overextending into the market.

Use risk management tools

Automated tools like stop-losses and take-profit orders help traders stay disciplined by setting predetermined exit points. These features ensure trades align with a strategy, reducing the need for constant market monitoring and preventing emotionally driven decisions.

Consider tax implications

Even during profitable bull markets, traders should account for potential capital gains taxes when selling digital assets. Many countries require taxes on crypto profits or activities like staking and decentralized finance (DeFi). Tools like CoinTracker simplify tracking trading activity and generating compliant tax forms for authorities like the IRS.

Make the most of every bull run with CoinTracker

Add CoinTracker’s portfolio tracker to your crypto trading toolkit and simplify managing your digital assets. CoinTracker’s advanced software syncs your exchange accounts and wallets in real time, giving you a clear view of your gains and losses. With features like tax-loss harvesting, CoinTracker helps identify opportunities to reduce the capital gains taxes owed to authorities like the IRS. 

When tax season arrives, CoinTracker organizes your transaction history into compliant forms, ready for your CPA or platforms like TurboTax and H&R Block.

No matter the trading season, CoinTracker has the tools you need to streamline crypto tax reporting. Get started by signing up for a free account today. 

Disclaimer: This post is informational only and is not intended as tax advice. For tax advice, please consult a tax professional.